With Election Day upon us, we’re sharing a preview of the seven ballot measures and contested congressional and legislative races across the state compiled by our lobby firm Axiom Advisors.
BALLOT MEASURES
Prop 1
Prop 1 would amend the California Constitution to enshrine a fundamental right to reproductive freedom. That includes the right to choose to have an abortion and the right to choose or refuse contraceptives. California is already considered a “reproductive freedom state” and earlier this year the Legislature passed a package of bills that will go expand access to abortion and provide funding across the state; but Proposition 1 will go even further, adding abortion directly into the State Constitution.
Abortion is currently protected under the right to privacy in California, but the decision by the Supreme Court shows that we cannot rely on those protections, which is why the Legislature voted to place Proposition 1 on the ballot.
Proposition 1 is expected to pass on November 8, but the question remains by what margin. The issue is the of most interest to voters out of any of the seven statewide ballot measures (PPIC, October), but the campaign is working to turn out voters with GOTV ads in the final days of the campaign.
Prop 26 and 27
Prop 26 (California Sports Wagering Regulation and Unlawful Gambling Enforcement Act) and the coalition of wealthy gaming tribes supporting it which includes Pechanga, San Manuel, Yocha Dehe Winton, Barona, Sycuan and Agua Caliente (San Manuel has a separate but coordinated effort).
Prop 27 (California Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support Act) and the coalition of operators including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Bally’s Interactive, WynnBET and Fanatics.
Both sides have spent record amounts of money on paid advertising and ultimately have pulled back what is on air, with recent polling showing both measures likely to fail.
The Prop 26 coalition has made it clear that they would prefer both measures loose and the State go back to drawing board than Prop 27 pass in any form – and their spending reflects that. More than 90% of their campaign content is exclusively “No on 27” messaging. Prop 26 is becoming a quasi-orphan.
The Prop 27 coalition is responding with a mostly contrasting message – attacking 26 and elevating 27 as the only measure that benefits child protections, homeless services and poor, non-gaming tribes. Their contrasting attack on “wealthy tribes” is unique in a state where historically dislocated Tribes have enjoyed great political success and high approval ratings.
Prop 28
Prop 28 would require the state to allocate at least 1% of Prop. 98 funding — money guaranteed for public schools and community colleges in the state budget — for music and arts education. That’s estimated to be a $1 billion annual set aside. Schools with high proportions of students from low-income households would get more funding. School districts will be required to spend 80% of the new funding on hiring arts and music instructors, and they will have to publish annual reports on how they spend the money.
State law requires instruction in visual and performing arts for grades 1-6. For grades 7-8, schools must offer arts classes either during or after school. High school students must take either a year of art, a foreign language or career and technical education to graduate. But most California high schools require students to take art to align with the admissions requirements for the California State University and University of California systems.
But when school district budgets are cut during economic downturns, arts and music programs are often the first to be downsized.
Prop 29
Prop 29 would require kidney dialysis clinics to have at least one physician, nurse practitioner or physician assistant with six months of relevant experience available on site or, in some cases, via telehealth. It also requires that clinics report infection data to the state, as well as publicly list physicians who have ownership interest of 5% or more in a clinic. The measure also prohibits clinics from closing or reducing services without state approval and from refusing treatment to people based on their insurance type.
This measure is nothing new to California voters, who have been faced with the same language in 2018 and in 2020, all put on the ballot by Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West and all handily defeated by voters.
Prop 30
Prop. 30 would impose a 1.75% personal income tax increase on Californians making more than $2 million per year to fund a suite of climate programs intended to clean up the state’s dirty air and help meet ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets.
The proposition creates a new revenue stream to subsidize zero-emission vehicles and fund wildfire response and prevention — between $3.5 billion to $5 billion annually, growing over time, according to state analysts.
More than three quarters of the funding would go towards rebates for people buying zero- emission cars and to build more charging stations. Half of that funding will go to low- and middle-income residents, who are disproportionately affected by poor air quality and heavy pollution. The state already spends millions each year on zero-emission vehicle programs and dedicated an additional $10 billion over the next five years to those programs in this year’s budget.
A quarter of the tax money would provide funding to hire and train firefighters, who are battling increasingly worsening wildfires. On average, the state spends about $2 billion to $4 billion annually putting out wildfires.
Governor Gavin Newsom joined the California Teachers Association in a public statement of opposition to the measure, calling it a “cynical scheme devised by a single corporation to funnel state income tax revenue to their company.”
In the most recent PPIC Survey, it looks as though public opinion has shifted on the issue, with the support of the measure coming in at just 41 percent.
Prop 31
Prop 31 will decide whether to overturn a 2020 law that prohibits the sale of some flavored tobacco products that was overwhelmingly passed with bipartisan support and signed by Governor Newsom. A “yes” vote upholds the current law; a “no” vote would strike down the law and allow the sale of flavored tobacco products.
The law was intended to keep flavored tobacco away from kids and teens, who report in high numbers that they often started smoking with a flavored product. According to Tobacco Free Kids, youth smokers 12 to 17 use menthol cigarettes more than other age groups. At least 60 cities and counties across California have already banned the sale of some flavored tobacco products and menthol cigarettes.
The coalition in support of Prop 31 has amassed hundreds of groups from teachers, physicians and public health groups while the No campaign unsurprisingly consists of Big Tobacco groups.
Michael Bloomberg has committed tens of millions of dollars in the final months of the campaign to help the message get out loud and clear.
CA RACES TO WATCH – U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Depending on how close the battle for the House becomes, the outcomes of California’s contested races could determine control of Congress; at a minimum, they will influence the margin of power. Nationwide, Republicans need to pick up a net of just five seats to flip control of the House.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has tracked House and Senate races for decades, rates five California races as toss-ups and highlights six others drawing money and attention. According to Los Angeles Times, some $100 million has been booked for fall TV and radio advertising in those 11 races.
CD-03 Kermit Jones (D) vs. Kevin Kiley (R)
District is largely rural stretching from Death Valley up through Plumas County. Jones is a physician and Navy veteran. Kiley, an Assemblyman since 2016, ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2019 and in the gubernatorial recall in 2021. Each candidate has raised roughly $3 m. Cook says LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
CD-09 Josh Harder (D) vs. Tom Patti (R)
District is centered in Stockton and San Joaquin County. Harder is an incumbent since 2018. Patti is a San Joaquin County Supervisor and businessman. Harder has raised and spent more than $6.4 m. Patti has raised $1.4 m. Cook says LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.
CD-13 Adam Gray (D) vs. John Duarte (R)
District runs down the middle of Central Valley and includes Merced, Madera and half of Modesto. Gray has been an Assemblyman since 2012. Duarte is a fourth-generation farmer. Each candidate has raised and spent roughly $2 million. Cook says TOSS-UP.
CD-22 Rudy Salas (D) vs. David Valadao (R)
District runs east of downtown Bakersfield and includes parts of Kern, Kings and Tulare counties. Valadao is an incumbent, who was unseated in 2018 but won his seat back in 2022. Salas has been an Assemblyman since 2012. A total of $15 m has been spent in this race — $6 m by the candidates and $9 m by IE’s – with Valadao enjoying a money advantage in both categories. Cook says TOSS-UP.
CD-26 Julia Brownley (D) vs. Matt Jacobs (R)
District is largely in Ventura County with a sliver of Los Angeles County. Brownley has been an incumbent since 2012. Jacobs was a federal prosecutor. He has raised $2.4 m compared to Brownley’s $2.1 m. But the incumbent had $1.9 m in the bank. Cook says LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
CD-27 Christy Smith (D) vs. Mike Garcia (R)
District runs through northern Los Angeles County with Santa Clarita at its heart. Garcia is the incumbent and former Navy pilot who replaced Katie Hill after her resignation. He won in 2020 by a mere 333 votes. Since redistricting, the district has lost Simi Valley, its most conservative outpost. Smith is a former Assemblymember, who has already lost to Garcia twice. Garcia has raised $6.6 m. Smith $3.6 m. $2.3 m in IE’s. Cook says TOSS-UP.
CD-40 Asif Mahmood (D) vs. Young Kim (R)
District is mostly suburban, affluent Orange County with a sliver of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Although Kim is technically the incumbent, she does not live in the district and hasn’t represented four-fifths of the current voter base. Dr. Mahmood is a pulmonologist who ran unsuccessfully for Insurance Commissioner in 2018. Kim has raised $8.2 m; Mahmood $3 m. Cook says LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
CD-41 Will Rollins (D) vs. Ken Calvert (R)
District runs through Riverside County including Palm Springs. Registration in this district is dead even between R’s and D’s. Calvert has been an incumbent since 1993 but hasn’t had a tough race in 14 years. Rollins is a former federal prosecutor who is gay. Both candidates have raised roughly $3.4 m. Cook says LEANS REPUBLICAN.
CD-45 Jay Chen (D) vs. Michelle Steel (R)
District runs through Orange County, comprising an Asian plurality district. Steel is an incumbent and former CRP chairperson, County Supervisor and Board of Equalization member. Chen is a Navy reservist, current community college board trustee and former school board member. Steel has raised $6.8 m, outpacing Chen’s $4.5 m. Cook says LEANS REPUBLICAN.
CD-47 Katie Porter (D) vs. Scott Baugh (R)
District is Orange County from Seal Beach in the north to Laguna Beach in the south and includes Irvine. Porter is the incumbent and rising progressive star. Baugh is a former Republican Assembly Leader and business owner. The prolific Porter has raised $23 m, while Baugh has raised $2.5 m. Cook says TOSS-UP.
CD-49 Mike Levin (D) vs. Brian Maryott (R)
District runs through Orange and San Diego counties from Dana Point to Encinitas. This is a rematch of a 2020 race where Levin, an environmental attorney, bested Maryott, a retired financial planner and former mayor of San Juan Capistrano, by 6 points. The candidates live in the same city and attend the same church. Levin has raised $4.7 m compared to Maryott’s $4.5 m. Cook says TOSS-UP.
CA RACES TO WATCH – STATE SENATE
Unlike other legislatures across the country, both houses in California are safely and overwhelmingly Democratic. Nevertheless, this is a time of transition for the States Senate, where 10 members are termed out or retiring and districts have been redrawn. Its current President pro tem Toni Atkins, who has enjoyed a stable and successful tenure, is termed out in 2024 and the race to succeed her is already engaged.
In 2022, voters in the Senate’s 20 even-numbered districts will elect Senators. Currently, Democrats hold a 31-9 supermajority, with the possibility for more.
SD-04 Marie Alvarado-Gil (D) vs. Tim Robertson (D)
If the Senate Democratic Caucus does nothing else this year, it can already claim a historic win because the June Open Primary results turned this historically Republican district (currently held mostly by Andreas Borgeas) into a one-two Democratic sweep. Robertson is a labor leader endorsed by the California Democratic Party. Alvarado-Gil is a charter-school administrator.
SD-06 Paula Villescaz (D) vs. Roger Niello (R)
Capitol fixture Jim Nielsen is termed out. Villescaz is a San Juan Unified School District board member and former Newsom appointee who served at California Health and Human Services Agency during the pandemic. Niello is a former Assemblymember and brand-name auto dealer who lost a bid for Senate in 2010, after joining Governor Schwarzenegger in tax hike vote.
SD-08 Angelique Ashby (D) vs. Dave Jones (D)
One of the most expensive ($15 m spent and counting) and hotly-contested intraparty fights on the ballot, Jones – the former Assemblyman and state Insurance Commissioner – had early advantages, including the California Democratic Party endorsement and most of progressive labor. But Sacramento City Councilwoman Ashby, the unsuccessful mayoral candidate who has long been a favorite of police and fire unions, has been closing strong, garnering critical endorsements from Governor Newsom and Brown.
SD-10 Lily Mei (D) vs. Aisha Wahab (D)
This East Bay district has been vacated by termed-out Bob Wieckowski. Mei, the Mayor of Fremont, is facing Wahab, a Hayward City Councilmember who is vying to become the first Afghan woman elected to state office in California. Wahab is the progressive endorsed by the California Democratic Party, Attorney General Bonta and Wieckowski. Mei is endorsed by Mayor Liccardo and Congressman Khanna. Another labor/moderate proxy fight.
SD-16 Melissa Hurtado (D) vs. David Shepard (R)
A traditional incumbent protection partisan priority race, the Senate Democratic Caucus is all-in to support the moderate Hurtado in this redistricted seat, which no longer includes her base of support in Fresno. Hurtado’s opponent is the Latino son of a multi-generation farming family from Tulare County. Turnout will be a huge factor in this mostly rural district.
SD-20 Daniel Hertzberg (D) vs. Caroline Menjivar (D)
This heavily Democratic district became a race when Marine veteran and former Garcetti appointee Menjivar finished four points ahead of the third-place Republican. The 31-year-old Hertzberg has enjoyed all of the name-brand advantages – including endorsements from the California Democratic Party, Labor Federation and SEIU — that come with attempting to succeed a legendary termed-out father. The dynamics are complicated by Bob Hertzberg’s competitive race for the overlapping Supervisor seat against progressive Lindsey Horvath.
SD-38 Catherine Blakespear (D) vs. Matt Gunderson (R)
Pat Bates is termed out of this “Orange County coastline through Camp Pendleton down to La Jolla” district, which used to be a Republican stronghold but has evolved. Blakespear, the Mayor of Encinitas, is a former reporter and attorney who has been a vocal leader on YIMBY housing issues. Gunderson is a former auto dealer from Orange County and the son-in-law of the late, great Senator Dave Cox. Blakespear won the Union Tribune endorsement, while Gunderson is endorsed by the Orange County Register. If Blakespear wins, this election goes from “good” to “great” for Atkins and the Democrats.
SD-40 Joseph Rocha (D) vs. Brian Jones (R)
This San Diego district pits conservative incumbent Jones against Marine captain/attorney Rocha. Jones has a financial advantage, but this district is trending more blue and Biden won the district handily in 2020. In the closing weeks, the increasingly confident Democratic caucus has been moving more resources to Rocha.
CA RACES TO WATCH – STATE ASSEMBLY
If this is a time of stable, scheduled transition in the Senate, things are more volatile in the Assembly, where Democrats hold a three-fourths super-majority but longtime Speaker Anthony Rendon faces a public and ongoing challenge from Assemblyman Robert Rivas for leadership control which could intensify as early as Thursday at a regularly-scheduled Caucus meeting.
One of the underlying dynamics of this year’s races are the proxy fights they represent for various camps. Rendon’s operation has coordinated and supported races through usual leadership structures while Members aligned with Rivas say they’ve independently raised and spent more than $550,000 on open seats.
Currently, Democrats hold a 60-19-1 supermajority, with the possibility for more.
AD-07 Ken Cooley (D) vs. Josh Hoover (R)
A district encompassing suburbs of Sacramento, it’s become less Democratic post-redistricting. Cooley’s the well-known incumbent running against Folsom Cordova school board member and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley staffer Hoover. Cooley outraised Hoover $4.6 m to $1.5 m. Sacramento Bee endorsed Hoover.
AD-10 Eric Guerra (D) vs. Stephanie Nguyen (D)
A straight D-on-D proxy fight for Jim Cooper’s vacated seat, Guerra is a well-regarded Capitol staffer and Sacramento City Councilman endorsed by labor and the Democratic Party. Nguyen is an Elk Grove City Councilmember who finished as the primary top vote-getter. Guerra has raised more direct dollars but pro-business and pro-API IE’s in favor of Nguyen have dominated the race.
AD-12 Damon Connolly (D) vs. Sara Aminzadeh (D)
A mostly Marin County (and heavily Democratic) district, these two Democrats are running to replace Marc Levine. Aminzadeh is a lawyer who sits on the Coastal Commission endorsed by Congressman Jared Huffman and the San Francisco Chronicle. Connolly is a County Supervisor and former San Rafael City Councilmember endorsed by CTA and Labor Fed, as well as the Marin IJ.
AD-20 Shawn Kumagai (D) vs. Liz Ortega (D)
An East Bay proxy fight to replace longtime Assemblymember Bill Quirk. Ortega is leader of the Alameda Labor Council and endorsed by Quirk, California Democratic Party and most of labor. Kumagai is a Dublin City Councilmember and gay Navy veteran who used to work for Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan.
AD-22 Jessica Self (D) vs. Juan Alanis (R)
A redrawn Central Valley district centered around Modesto with no incumbent, Self is an attorney who defeated Chad Condit in the primary. Alanis is a Stanislaus Deputy Sheriff. Neither have held elected office. This is a conventional D vs. R swing seat fight.
AD-27 Esmerelda Soria (D) vs. Mark Pazin (R)
A majority-Latino district in the Central Valley currently held by Adam Gray, it pits Fresno City Councilmember Soria (last seen running unsuccessfully as a progressive alternative to Jim Costa) against former Merced County Sheriff Pazin. Soria has raised nearly $4 m and has been endorsed by the Fresno Bee and Merced Sun-Star.
AD-34 Tom Lackey (R) vs. Thurston “Smitty” Smith (R)
A high-desert district mostly in San Bernardino County, this is a showdown between two GOP incumbents. Lackey, the former California Highway Patrol officer, is slightly more moderate than former Mayor of Hesperia Smith, who succeeded Jay Obernolte in his seat. Realtors and CCPOA are spending money in support of Lackey, who has endorsements of House leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate leader Scott Wilk. Smith has Obernolte and Los Angeles Daily News.
AD-35 Jasmeet Bains (D) vs. Leticia Perez (D)
A district encompassing most of Kern County, it pits the only Democratic Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez against physician Bains. The same two finished in the June Primary neck-and-neck (Perez 50.5, Bains 49.5). This has become a moderate vs. progressive proxy fight – with labor supporting Perez and California Medical Association, PORAC and car dealers supporting Bains. Perez slightly outraised Bains but pro-Bains IE’s have dwarfed direct spending with nearly $3 m.
AD-40 Pilar Schiavo (D) vs. Suzette Valladares (R)
Valladares is a Republican incumbent in this district centered around the Santa Clarita Valley and reaching down into the San Fernando Valley. It overlaps the CD-27 battleground between Mike Garcia and Christy Smith. D’s have a 13-point registration advantage in the district, so it’s no shock that Valladares is a rich target for the Assembly Democratic Caucus campaign team. Her opponent Schiavo is a labor organizer endorsed by the Los Angeles Times.
AD-47 Christy Holstege (D) vs. Greg Wallis (R)
In the desert race to fill the seat of independent Chad Mayes which now includes most of the western and central Coachella Valley, outgoing Palm Springs Mayor and attorney Holstege (36 years old) has outraised and outspent her Republican opponent Wallis (32 years old), a district director for Mayes.
AD-70 Diedre Thu-Ha Nguyen (D) vs. Tri Ta (R)
Republican incumbent Janet Nguyen was drawn out, so this primarily Orange County district features two-Vietnamese born candidates running to succeed her. The Democrat Nguyen lost to Janet Nguyen in 2020. She’s a cancer researcher at Quest Diagnostics and serves on the Garden Grove City Council. Republican Ta is the Mayor of Westminster and an ally of former Assemblyman Tyler Diep.
AD-74 Chris Duncan (D) vs. Laurie Davies (R)
This coastal district stretching from San Clemente in Orange County down to Oceanside in San Diego County is more Democratic (12-point registration advantage) than the one incumbent Davies won two years ago, when Duncan, an immigration lawyer and current San Clemente
mayor pro tem, ran and lost in the primary. Davies has the OC Register and San Diego Union- Tribune endorsements.
AD-76 Brian Maienschein (D) vs. Kristie Bruce-Lane (R)
Maienschein is the incumbent in this north San Diego County district who famously switched parties in 2019 and is now being challenged by red-meat Republican, businesswoman and water board representative Bruce-Lane.