This week in affordable housing news…:

State Update:

• Proposition 1 appears increasingly likely to pass by a narrow margin, with the Governor’s mental health and housing measure earning the support of 50.2% of voters with just under 500,000 ballots still to count on Friday morning. Opponents of the $6.4 billion bond proposal conceded earlier this week, but the race has not yet been called. The Newsom campaign has said it remains “optimistic” about the outcome.

• The close vote raised concern over the last few weeks among advocates of several other bond measures moving toward the November ballot, including a $10 billion affordable housing bond supported by CHC and a growing coalition of legislators and community organizations. But as ballots continue to be counted, low voter turnout appears to be a major reason behind Prop 1’s struggles, as final turnout is expected to be only 33% of registered voters—one of the lowest in state history. The electorate appears to be much older and less diverse than the population as a whole, with 51% of voters over age 65 casting ballots, compared to 13% of voters under age 35. By comparison, 80% of registered voters cast ballots in the last presidential election in November 2020.

• The State of the State address is scheduled for Monday, when Gov. Newsom is expected to talk about Prop 1’s outcome and the state’s ongoing efforts to take on its affordable housing and homelessness crises. The Legislature has until June to place measures on the November ballot, but with the state revenue picture still uncertain, the size and scope of this year’s bonds are not likely to be agreed upon until May, after taxes are filed. CHC will be continuing to raise awareness in the Capitol about the urgent need to give voters an opportunity this year to support a substantial affordable housing bond measure.

Housing advocates in Livermore decry what they see as a new tactic for NIMBYs
San Jose Mercury News
The latest court decision in a long battle by Eden Housing to build 130 units of affordable housing in downtown Livermore has thrown the project into flux—and has advocates decrying a new breed of NIMBY tactics. After years of lawsuits filed by a group of neighbors opposed to the project—all of which have resulted in courts siding with Eden—a state appeals panel in San Francisco decided last Wednesday that a referendum against the project would be allowed to move forward. The court, in its decision, argued that the original land deal approving the project was a legislative act subject to public referendum because the development agreement also approved the construction of a new public park. While opponents continue to push for a public vote on the project, the city is reviewing its options for moving forward. “If we’re talking about the challenge of getting through well-heeled opposition, this is the poster child for that,” said Eden CEO Linda Mandolini: “But we don’t give up that easily.”

Hubris, thy name is Gavin
Los Angeles Times – Column by George Skelton
Gov. Gavin Newsom should have learned this four years ago: You don’t try to sell voters on more government spending in a primary election. Particularly Sacramento spending. Newsom’s Proposition 1 may finally pass after vote counting is completed. But as of this writing, it is still too close to call. There’s a reason for that: Many politicos were surprised last year when Newsom insisted his proposal be placed on the March 5 primary ballot. Primary elections are often graveyards for liberal causes. That’s because they typically suffer from low turnout—and this one was no different, with final counts expected to be a pathetic 33% of register voters. You’d think Newsom would have understood the lesson: “Always go to the general election if you’re going to ask voters for money.”

A quarter of the state’s homeless are Black, study says—experts say more affordable housing needed
Sacramento Bee
More than a quarter of homeless Californians are Black, nearly four times the state’s Black population, according to a February report by the UCSF Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative. Today, 26% of the state’s unhoused population is Black, while African Americans make up just 7% of the state’s population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Decades of racism, and racist policy and practice laid the foundation for today’s crisis, said Kara Young Ponder, the report’s lead author and a director of the initiative. But many other factors are also at play, she said: “Ending homelessness among Black Californians will require a dramatic increase in affordable housing, economic support to help them afford this housing, and dedicated efforts to navigate a challenging housing market and to enforce anti-discrimination laws.”