This week in affordable housing news…:

State update:

• California is likely to have another “historic budget surplus” next year, Governor Newsom said this week at a Milken Institute event, according to the Sacramento Bee. The state has already collected $14 billion more in tax revenue than expected in the current budget year, the governor said—a number that could continue to go up as the economy gains steam after two years of COVID. The September jobs report released today found California has created 812,000 jobs this year, regaining 63% of the jobs lost during the pandemic. A LAO study last month projected the state would have a budget surplus of between $5 billion and $25 billion in the next fiscal year.

• With housing remaining one of Californians’ highest priorities, the state is trying to expand enforcement of housing production goals—along with a wave of recent legislation designed to accelerate development. Will it work? The last episode of the “Gimme Shelter” podcast explores the potential of HCD’s new Housing Accountability Unit, “a 25-person team with a budget of more than $4 million [that] is expected to help cities meet their housing goals—and crack down on those who fail to do so.” In an Eden Housing podcast released this week, the Terner Center’s David Garcia also shared his thoughts on what he has called a “breakthrough year” for housing—and what could be next for a range of advocates, from YIMBYs to tenants’ rights groups.

• The Bay Area’s regional planning agencies adopted a $1.4 trillion strategy this week for making the region “more affordable, connected, diverse, healthy and economically vibrant for all its residents” over the next 30 years. Plan Bay Area 2050, developed by the Association of Bay Area Governments and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, has been a work in progress since 2018. The final multi-decade strategy, which some have called a “shoot for the moon,” highlights the need for at least 400,000 new permanently affordable units in the region—and proposes a $237 billion investment in preserving existing affordable housing and $219 billion for building deed-restricted affordable homes. The plan notes that moving forward with all of its proposed strategies would require “approximately $780 billion” in new revenues. “[This plan] is a commitment to do hard things, not just think about them,” said ABAG-MTC Executive Director Therese W. McMillan. “Even if these steps have to be taken incrementally, they will lead us to a more equitable and resilient Bay Area.”

ICYMI – Top news stories:

Manchin: Negotiators to miss Friday target for deal on reconciliation bill
The Hill
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he does not believe negotiators will be able to meet a goal laid out earlier in the week by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to reach a deal on the framework of the budget reconciliation package by Friday. “This is not going to happen anytime soon, guys,” Manchin told reporters Thursday afternoon. Manchin, who doesn’t want to spend much more than the $1.5 trillion on the social spending package, said there’s still a massive amount of work to be done. “There’s a lot of work to do, everybody’s working hard, everybody’s communicating, working hard. A lot of meetings going on,” he said.  Asked if the talks will drag past Friday, despite an effort by Schumer to get a framework deal wrapped up this week, Manchin said, “I believe so, yes.”

Federal housing investments are key to a thriving California
CalMatters – Op-Ed by Fred Blackwell
Our congressional leadership can save lives and protect California families by ensuring that housing priorities are kept in the Build Back Better legislation package now under consideration. Funding three crucial housing programs will help ensure California families can afford a place to call home and encourage creation of the affordable housing our state needs: 1) Fund federal housing vouchers to help families and individuals with low incomes move into homes that provide safety and stability; 2) Reform the federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to create thousands of affordable homes; 3) Fund programs such as HOME, Community Development Block grant, and the new Unlocking Possibilities that will help ensure local governments have needed housing resources. 

Funding fight threatens plans to pump billions into affordable housing
New York Times
In late July, congressional Democrats introduced a $322 billion plan to bolster low-income housing programs as part of the $3.5 trillion social spending plan embraced by President Biden. At its center is a $200 billion infusion of aid for the country’s poorest tenants, which would allow another 750,000 households to participate in a program that currently serves two million families. But low-income housing, and the voucher program in particular, are among those most at risk of being sharply scaled back as the White House seeks to slash the package to accommodate the demands of two centrist Democrats, Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.